The present invention relates generally to artificial intelligence, with an expert knowledge-based system having an inference engine, applied to a Construction Cost Management and Analysis System (CCMAS), and more particularly to a comprehensive cost estimating computer system for construction projects all over the country, and even all over the world.
In the construction industry, progress has been made in leaps and bounds away from the age old post and lintel system of construction. Today, the industry marries all elements of architecture and engineering with electronics, chemistry, law and most importantly, economics.
Despite the plethora of technological advances, the construction industry has experienced a virtual explosion of cost overruns and claims totaling in the billions of dollars. This is due to the fact that the common method used for estimating the average construction project today is still with paper and pen (or perhaps a computerized spreadsheet to simplify the calculations), cost data manual, and the requirement for enormous amounts of detail prior to beginning the estimate. This method fails to address the numerous concerns facing the construction estimator of the 1990's.
First of all, the prices in the manuals are based on certain variables and conditions not normally known by the average estimator. Therefore, used incorrectly, devastating errors in pricing will occur. Additionally, the data manuals require an up-front, clear definition of every aspect of the project including size, power, heating, cooling and exhaust requirements, type of construction, special construction needs, unique problems due to site location, and the anticipation of unknown areas of risk during the project.
This detail generates vast uncertainties and potential omission in the estimating process because the estimate is often performed at a point in time when nothing more than an idea transpired. The Quantity Take Off (QTO) method has been traditionally used to identify and estimate this level of detail. It involves, for example, counting every two-by-four stud required for each wall as well as the number and size of nails that will be used to secure each stud. Attempting to do this with negligible or partial plans or specifications is, to put it simply, rife with the risks of double counting or conversely, omitting project requirements.
Estimates produced using the QTO method clearly lack a high degree of reliability and their effectiveness is further diminished as a project becomes more complex. Also, crucial factors, such as risk forecasting and lift cycle cost estimating, are not able to be adequately treated by the traditional, almost anachronistic, method of estimating.
An objective of the invention is to address the aforementioned concerns and to provide the construction industry with the means to incorporate economic issues of the future into the estimates of today.
United States patents of interest include U.S. Pat. No. 4,700,318, to Ockman which discloses a computer system for construction projects such as buildings, bridges, dams, industrial plants, means of transport and the like. The patented system may use an appropriately programmed general-purpose computer or an otherwise similar computer especially dedicated to such purpose. Storage and retrieval of structural information, work activities and other data are conveniently machine-assisted. In Thompson U.S. Pat. No. 4,642,780 a computer system is used in fields such as architecture, space planning, interior design and corporate facility management for efficiently designing and allocating space to the various subdivisions of an organization. The system of this patent operates by gathering answers to a series of questions to the user to elicit information such as project data, identification of departments, available floor space, furniture and equipment, affinities between departments, staffing personnel priorities, etc. In U.S. Pat. No. 4,782,448, Milstein uses a computer 38 as an aid in contract estimating. He is concerned with the building construction trades where there is the necessity to provide accurate estimates of the cost of constructions for use in competitive bidding. In estimating, he takes into account the costs of a vast multitude of structural, plumbing, electrical, heating and other types of purchased equipment and components. Racine in U.S. Pat. No. 4,578,768 describes a computer aided system used in construction, planning, land survey, real estate and many other industries. Aish in U.S. Pat. No. 4,275,449 mentions a Computer Aided Architectural Design (CAAD) system. Cox et al in U.S. Pat. No. 3,927,948 discuss a method and apparatus for designing structures such as industrial plants.
However, none of the above references teach a comprehensive cost estimating computer system for construction projects all over the country, and even all over the world.